Troy, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

167
FXUS61 KALY 060800
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
400 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected today
thanks to a nearby frontal boundary. Thunderstorms will be capable
of producing heavy downpours and gusty winds. Although more showers
and thunderstorms will linger into Saturday, drier and less humid
weather is anticipated for Sunday with comfortable conditions.  More
showers and thunderstorms are expected for much of next week with
seasonable temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages:

 -Widespread showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall today
  will lead to an increased risk for flash flooding across parts
  of the Catskills, Capital Region and Berkshires. WPC has a
  Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) for these areas and a Flood Watch
  for Flash Flooding is in effect.

 -The strongest thunderstorms may be capable of producing wind
  damage and hail this afternoon into this evening, especially
  across the Berkshires, where SPC has a Slight Risk (Level 2
  of 5).

Discussion:

As of 400 AM EDT...A frontal boundary remains stalled across
the region early this morning. Some scattered thunderstorms and
rain showers have been ongoing overnight, although most of the
activity is now located east of the region. Still, with the
boundary overhead and a humid air mass in place (dewpoints into
the 60s), so additional scattered showers can be expected into
the morning hours.

IR satellite imagery shows fairly widespread cloud cover in
place early this morning, but more breaks are anticipated by
later this morning and into the afternoon, as the stalled
boundary starts shifting back northward thanks to a wave of low
pressure developing along the front. With some breaks of sun
expected, there will be some surface-based instability for
today. Although amounts will be lower than on Thursday, model
guidance still suggest over 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE from about the
Capital Region on south and east. Since the best upper level
dynamics will be well northwest of the region, 0-6 km bulk
shear will be limited today. Values will range from around 20
kts over southern areas to around 30 kts for northern areas,
peaking this afternoon into early evening hours. While there
isn`t a great overlap of instability/shear, there still should
be enough for some loosely organized thunderstorms for this
afternoon into this evening. CAMs (both the 3km HRRR and
NAMNest) suggests a broken line of thunderstorms will move west
to east across the region for this afternoon into the evening.
Some isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible, especially
for areas that see the best instability (Berkshires, mid Hudson
Valley and NW CT), where storms may be the tallest. Some hail
may occur again today within the tallest storms.

In addition, there will be the potential for heavy downpours
today. Mean PWAT values from the NAEFS exceed 1.50 inches this
afternoon, which is about 1-2 STD above normal. SPC HREF shows 3
hr QPF probability-matched mean precip amounts of 1.50 to 2.50
inches in a band from the Catskills northeast across the Capital
Region into the Berkshires. Although there has been some dry
weather recently, high rainfall rates may allow for isolated to
scattered flash flooding today, especially in urban and low
lying locations and poor drainage areas may see ponding of
water. In collaboration with WFO BGM and BOX, have issued a
Flood Watch for Flash Flooding from Schoharie and Greene
counties eastward into the Berkshires, including the Capital
Region from Noon to Midnight. The main impact times look to be
from the about the mid afternoon through the early evening
hours, when CAMs show the heaviest downpours moving west to
east across the area.

With the clouds and precip, temps will be a little cooler
compared to recent days. Temps will generally be in the 70s,
although some low to mid 80s are still expected for areas south
of the boundary across the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT where the
most sun is expected for today.

By the late evening, there should be break in the precip for
most of the overnight hours, although it will remain mild and
muggy with the front just west of the area. Skies will remain
partly to mostly cloudy tonight with lows in the upper 50s to
mid 60s. Another round of precip is expected for Saturday
morning as the boundary shifts back eastward.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As a shortwave trough moves across southern Canada, the surface
boundary will begin making eastward progress once again on
Saturday. Another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms
are expected, mainly for early in the day, as the front heads
across the area from west to east. There could continue to be
some heavy downpours early on Saturday and some additional
flooding can`t be ruled out, especially for spots that saw heavy
rainfall on Friday. WPC has a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall for eastern parts of the area. Temps will only be in
the 70s on Saturday with a mostly cloudy sky, although some
clearing is expected for later in the day behind the departing
front.

In the wake of the boundary, less humid air will pour in the
region for Saturday night into Sunday. Dewpoints will drop back
into the 50s. Sunday will be the best day on the weekend
(weather-wise) with a partly sunny sky and dry conditions. Temps
will be comfortable in the 70s as well. Some clouds may start to
increase by Sunday night along with a few light showers, mainly
for southwestern areas and lows in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected during the
long term period as a slow moving upper level low moves from the
Great Lakes towards the Northeast, especially for the early to
middle portion of the week. While some showers and thunderstorms
are possible each day in the long term, it appears Tuesday may
have the greatest coverage of precip thanks to the moist
southerly flow ahead of the approaching upper low. Some heavy
downpours may be possible once again and WPC already has parts
of the area in the Marginal Outlook for Excessive Rainfall for
Day 5 (Tuesday). Otherwise, it will be fairly seasonable for
early June with temps in the 70s to low 80s and lows in the 50s
to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06z Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions as of 1AM EDT, although
scattered showers and thunderstorms should track just south of GFL
over the next hour or so. A cluster of weakening thunderstorms may
impact PSF within the first hour or two of the TAF period. Light
showers at ALB diminish within the first few hours of the TAF
period. Showers and storms should remain north of POU. Brief MVFR
vsbys possible with any showers. Showers dissipate by 08-09z, with
mainly VFR conditions through early this afternoon. Can`t rule out a
few pockets of fog/mist for an hour or two around sunrise this
morning for areas that see/saw showers overnight, but confidence is
too low to include in the TAFs.

Then, this afternoon, widespread showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop. Have included prob30 groups from mid-afternoon
through around 00z. Showers and storms should diminish after sunset.
Mainly VFR conditions expected outside of any showers/storms, but
IFR vsby restrictions possible within any thunderstorms or heavier
showers. Will once again have to monitor potential for fog/mist/low
stratus tomorrow night for any areas that see appreciable rainfall
in the evening. Winds will generally be at around 5 kt from the N/NW
at ALB/GFL through the remainder of the night and today, and become
S/SW at POU/PSF this afternoon at around 5 kt. Winds become light
and variable at all terminals after sunset tonight.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Flood Watch from noon EDT today through this evening for
     NYZ047>054-058>061.
MA...Flood Watch from noon EDT today through this evening for
     MAZ001-025.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Main